
It has been a long, arduous journey for Steph as she claims Immunity to secure a Final 4 spot - unshackled from the chains of despair dragging her down in Palau and pre-merge Guatemala - and the first ever Individual Immunity she has laid hands on in the past two seasons!
Jealousy will get you nowhere. But this week it sure worked its envious intoxication on several of the Final 5, and it did propel them into Final 4 for the finale of this season. At the Reward Challenge, Cindy beat Steph convincingly to claim the Pontiac for herself, yet Jeff dropped a bombshell by suggesting that if she gave up the car, she could wean herself away from the infamous car curse - that nobody who has won the car reward has ever won Survivor in the past 10 seasons - and automatically gift the rest each a similar Pontiac. Apparently intent on taking the odds on and being less than superstitious, she chose to accept the car for only herself, stirring masked resentment in Danni, Lydia and Rafe, all three who weren't chosen to tag along for the barbeque part of the reward. And as Cindy went completely tactless and overboard with her exhilarated spiel over her new automobile, it was reminiscent of Golden Boy Blake and his self-absorbed persona. Brian would be proud of Rafe, Danni and Lydia, who were inconspicuously quiet, misleading Cindy into assuming that they felt she had made the right decision, when in fact they were subconsciously allowing the unsuspecting zookeeper to dig her own grave. As Steph surged forward fervently to snatch Immunity, everyone else felt unsafe. With Steph being nudged with the consensus of Danni, Rafe and Lydia weighing upon her to vote off Cindy, it was simply deja vu all over again when Steph yet again took part in the execution of one of her allies, contributing to the final 4-1 result to send the Pontiac owner right over to the Jury.
Danni played her cards perfectly this week when she approached Rafe about Cindy's decision, which was rather shocking to both of them, coincidentally. Finding such a consensus, especially rare when you consider that Lydia and Steph both felt that Cindy did make the right choice of not forfeiting her rightful prize, was integral to reinforcing that particular bond that had existed ever since the merge between the two dark horses in the game, one of which has already been recognised as a major threat by Cindy at Tribal Council this week, and the other surreptitiously exploiting the fissures in the fractious alliance for vested interest. With Rafe literally promising Danni a Final 3 spot, and the sports newscaster repaying the priceless favour with a commensurate guarantee to pick the wilderness guide for Final 2, it was a done deal. Lydia still feels resentment towards Steph, which happened to yet again indirectly reap the rewards of someone else's victory (she's riding on coattails just for the reward challenges this season), thus it was fairly certain that if Steph tried to vote Rafe out, Lydia would not concur.
Right now, nobody seems to suspect that Rafe and Danni share this secret partnership that may consolidate their place in the Final 2 facing the 7-man Jury in the finale. Steph is more concerned with keeping Rafe loyal by her side, and she has totally discounted Lydia as a crucial ally with whom she could manipulate or count on to swing votes in her favour. Lydia, on the other hand, is rather nonchalant and would likely simply go with the majority, though she does feel more comfortably aligned with Danni and Rafe. Steph was forced to follow suit this week to vote off yet another member of the original alliance, much of which has been chipped off single-handedly by the Queen herself. We shall discuss the serious repercussions of this later, much of which should be painfully obvious to Steph by now.
Now only with 4 castaways, 3 Tribal Councils and 2 Immunity Challenges left to decide the sole Survivor for this season, it is time to review the prospects of each remaining person through the critical kaleidescope of the potential chance of clinching the Jury's vote.
One of the probable outcomes that could spawn from this episode's aftermath is that Lydia could decide to stick with Danni and Rafe to ensure at least a Final 3 finish, akin to Thailand's Brian and Clay jointly agreeing to take batty Jan to Final 3 instead of Helen due to the fact that Helen, like Steph, could pose a serious threat to their alliance, in this case, Danni and Rafe as the decision-makers. With a disappointing record at Rewards and Immunities, it seems safe to assume that Lydia won't be cradling that much sought-after necklace anytime soon, except maybe if she wins the e-Bay auction after the season ends. As such, nobody will think of bringing her to Final 2 since she doesn't deserve to win. Yet this is where the Judd conundrum manifests itself again - should I bring Lydia to Final 2 so that everyone will think she doesn't deserve to win and thus vote for me to win the million bucks, or give someone else more worthy the invaluable spot and risk the odds? With Steph being a much greater threat in challenges than the fishmonger, Rafe and Danni might just preempt by voting the Queen out and securing Final 2. I'm sure both of them have enough integrity in them to reward the other with a deserved spot in front of the Jury, and not take the cowardly, easy way out.
Yet Steph herself will surely attempt to get Lydia out first on the grounds that the latter is definitely less deserving than her. And if Rafe and Danni allow Steph to join them in the Final 3, it wouldn't be surprising in the least. At least Gary would be proud of them for upholding the Darwinian strategy of voting. The tricky thing is, Immunity will probably dictate the course of the finale. If Steph wins, then she might offer overtures to Rafe, her only key ally left after all that backstabbing and chipping the alliance away. Rafe might then feel pressured to vote Danni off and keep Lydia on the grounds that Lydia would not possibly win Immunity at Final 3, and both could ensure a Final 2 finish without being stressed as would be the case if Danni was competing. Would Rafe renege on his promise to Danni and risk losing her vote at Final 2? If Lydia is contented with a Final 3 finish only, then she will simply align herself with the majority and not create a deadlock (which would not help her cause in any particular way).
If you're one of the "nice" players in the game, and you knew this likeable popularity would backfire upon your strategy towards the end of the game, how would you possibly insulate yourself against the impending backlash? Usually, ally with another "nice" player and let the Jury decide who truly outplayed, outsmarted and outlasted the competition. Such is Danni's and Rafe's collusion right now. Steph's popularity has been all but destroyed, corroding acidly with each passing TC, what with Jamie, Judd and now Cindy being the betrayed allies, licking their wounds while simply craving the moment when they can deal a judgement blow to the Queen. Bobby Jon might be grateful to Steph for allowing him a Jury vote, but there's simply no way he's going to put her name on the parchment at Final 2. Assuming Lydia never makes it to Final 2 no matter the circumstances (and for the benefit of us viewers that it shouldn't be another Katie-versus-Tom), it comes down to the result of the second Immunity.
If Steph wins, there is absolutely no guarantee that she will pick Rafe, her closest ally since the beginning of the game - she turned on Cindy after promising her a Final 4 spot this week, and she did the same to Judd after he graciously let her boyfriend spend quality time with a clearly delighted Steph. This is no grateful ally, trust me. It seems entirely implausible that she would ever pick Lydia - if this happens, we're going to be stuck with two evils; an easy, opportunistic and boring Final TC and victory, or the most undeserving winner ever in the annals of Survivor history. She does find Danni similar to her in some ways ("she's a cool chick") and noted that she never did lie before. Danni is just as "nice" as Rafe, and if Steph takes Rafe along, Danni will feel no resentment, but she will surely vote for Rafe at Final 2. If Steph takes Danni, and Steph has already lost votes from Judd, Cindy, Bobby Jon, Gary and Jamie (maybe), then she will risk losing Rafe's vote since she blatantly betrayed him and proved that their relationship amounted to nothing after 38 days. Either way, I don't see a Steph victory in the horizon. Plus the "having played Survivor before" spectre looming just behind her, the odds are stacking very ominously against the Queen right now.
Scenario 1: Steph-Rafe
For Rafe: Gary - trusted Rafe before, believes him as not entirely complicit with Steph
Bobby Jon - just doesn't like her enough to be grateful for that Jury spot
Danni - feels more bonded to Rafe due to the fact that they are both dark horses
Lydia - this can't be more obvious
Undecideds:
Judd - bitter about Steph's betrayal, but seems like he finds everyone in that alliance complicit and responsible for his ouster; he's rather shallow and immature, so he might just choose to punish Steph for her transigence, or accept that she did what she needed to do, and that Rafe rode on coattails since he obviously did not consider him in high regard before
Cindy - also bitter about Steph's backstabbing, but then again, she was all touchy-feely with Rafe at the waterfall and this week, she caught him trying to engineer her ouster, so it's a toss-up
Jamie - seemingly appreciative of the fact that he was blindsided and outplayed by both of them, so it's a toss-up too
Result: At least a 4-3 victory for Rafe; even if Rafe won Immunity and chose Steph despite their promise to each other this week, Danni would not feel particularly bitter (she's not one to hold grudges)
Scenario 2: Steph-Danni
For Danni: Gary - best buds since the merge, proud of her for making so far despite the odds
Bobby Jon - no Steph, period
Lydia - this can't be more obvious, again
For Steph:
Cindy - absolutely no affinity for Danni whatsoever; perhaps grateful to Steph for taking her so far despite her backstabbing tactics, admiring her gamesmanship (she has a nonchalant, almost haughty attitude towards Danni's existence)
Undecideds:
Judd - see above, Danni as riding on coattails like Rafe did
Jamie - see above
Rafe - definitely grateful to Steph for bringing him so far in the game; yet both of whom he had made alliances with chose not to bring him to the Final 2, which means he should feel equally bitter no matter who wins, but there exists a slight possibility that he might just repay Steph with her name scrawled on his parchment
Result: A tough contest, but with 3 votes guaranteed for Danni, there's a slight edge for the sports newscaster to take home bragging rights as Guatemala's victor
Scenario 3: Danni-Rafe
For Rafe:
Lydia - closer to the wilderness guide than she is to Danni
Cindy - she'd rather vote for someone who she appreciates outsmarted her than
someone she totally doesn't know at all
Steph - appreciates Rafe's gamesmanship (if Danni picks Rafe, then Steph would surely vote for Rafe at Final 2; even if Rafe picks Danni, she might be bitter, but she would probably avoid calling the kettle black)
For Danni:
Gary - best buds since the merge, proud of her for making so far despite the odds
Bobby Jon - tribe mates way back in Nakum, remembered as a staunch ally
Undecideds:
Judd - might accuse Rafe of hiding in Steph's shadows most of the game while he and the Queen had to bear the brunt of being high-profile (given his egotistical nature); then again, he knows nothing about Danni
Jamie - again, knows nothing about Danni; Rafe did promise him that he would not vote for the former at TC, but reneged when he was given the boot (Jamie will question Rafe whether he lied at all, and demand an explanation for his boot - whether it is satisfactory will affect Jamie's vote)
Result: Again, inconclusively arbitrary, and another tough showdown. Could come down to who actually took the time to know the Jury members - in this aspect, Rafe wins hands-down
Steph might use the argument that she had a big target on her back all this while and she still managed to survive up till Final 2. Yet Rafe could say that he defied all social stereotypes of a true Survivor, and nobody expected someone like him to win; that he won 3 Immunities so far vindicates his rebuttal that he did not ride on anyone's coattails. But Danni would have the most convincing argument, that she had been the underdog right from the merge dominated by former Yaxha members, and she still managed to make it to the top. Gary's statement that people were starstruck by Steph could convince some that any inclination of theirs to vote for the Queen was misguided and the result of serious disillusionment. Thus, Steph used her popularity to get to the top, then taking advantage of their trust in her to send them packing once she didn't need them anymore.
My prediction: Danni, Rafe, Steph, then Lydia, in decreasing order of winning potential.

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